Contextual Factors Influencing High Run Chase Outcomes in T20 International Cricket

Abstract

This study examines the contextual factors influencing successful high run chases in T20 International (T20I) cricket by analyzing 229 matches played between 2005 and 2024. The dataset includes 109 successful and 120 unsuccessful run chases involving five prominent teams: Australia, England, India, New Zealand, and Pakistan. Key variables analyzed include venue type, pitch conditions, match timing, toss outcomes, and toss decisions. The descriptive findings suggest that successful chases are more likely to occur on balanced pitches, at neutral venues, and during day/night matches. Teams that win the toss and choose to chase especially those with strong upper or middle batting orders and higher ICC rankings demonstrate a significantly greater likelihood of success. While this analysis is exploratory in nature, it lays the groundwork for future research employing Bayesian Networks and other probabilistic machine learning techniques to quantify these relationships and develop predictive models for high run chase outcomes in T20I cricket.

Keywords: Contextual factors, T20 International Cricket, Successful Run Chases, Venues, Toss Outcomes, Toss decision, Pitch conditions